What is Consequence Analysis?

 

Consequence analysis is a process that evaluates the consequences of hazardous events that could potentially occur in the operations of an industrial facility. This analysis is used to determine the impacts of hazardous events such as explosions, fires, chemical leaks, toxic gas releases. Consequence analysis may involve simulating various scenarios to understand the size, scope and spread of potential impacts.

 

Legal Obligation:

 

Explosion Severity Assessment for the Explosion Protection Document: The consequence analysis is carried out to help identify potential risks to the safety of workers and the environment in the factory in case of fire and explosion. Article 6/ç of the REGULATION ON THE PROTECTION OF EMPLOYEES FROM THE DANGERS OF EXPLOSIVE ENVIRONMENTS published in the Official Gazette dated 30.04.2013 and numbered 28633 states that "The magnitude of the possible explosion effect." should be evaluated.

 

REGULATION ON PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF MAJOR INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS 

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In Annex-2 SAFETY REPORT, it is stated in Article 3.4.2. that "The physical, chemical and toxicological properties of hazardous substances and their immediate and subsequent effects on humans and the environment" should be evaluated. 2. Steps for the preparation of the major accident scenario document 2.1 Steps to be followed In subparagraph c of the Communiqué on the Safety Report to be Prepared Regarding Major Industrial Accidents published in the Official Gazette dated 19.04.2019 and numbered 30750, "Identification of internal hazards over the identified hazardous equipment." is required.

 

Why Conduct Outcome Analysis?

 

Safety Assessment: Consequence analysis helps to identify potential risks to the safety of workers and the environment. This is the basis for efforts to ensure safe working conditions and prevent or reduce hazardous incidents.

 

Determination of Environmental Impacts: Consequence analysis is conducted to determine the environmental impacts of hazardous events. Chemical spills or fires can damage water supplies, soils and air. It is important to identify and minimize these impacts in advance.

 

Financial Assessment: Having an idea of the financial cost of potential incidents helps businesses to improve their risk management strategies. Especially for large industrial facilities, such events can impose serious financial burdens.

Development of Control Strategies: Consequence analysis helps businesses understand how they can be better prepared to prevent hazardous incidents or mitigate their impact. This leads to the development of safety protocols and emergency plans.

 

Importance for Industrial Plants:

 

There are several important reasons for conducting consequence analysis, especially prior to the construction of industrial plants or the placement of tanks:

 

Risk Assessment: Industrial facilities can carry a high potential risk of hazardous events such as explosion, fire or chemical leakage. Therefore, it is critical to assess these risks prior to installation of the facility or placement of tanks.

Facility Design and Layout: Consequence analysis can be used to make decisions on facility design and layout. For example, the layout of tanks storing hazardous substances should be planned taking into account environmental and safety factors.

 

Mitigation of Environmental Impacts: Identifying potential impacts on the natural environment of the plant in advance helps to take environmental protection measures and comply with local regulations.

Process Safety Regulatory Compliance: Consequence analysis supports compliance with occupational health and safety and process safety (Seveso) regulations and ensures safe working conditions in the workplace.

 

Consequence analysis is vital for industrial facilities because it provides guidance in critical areas such as occupational health and safety, environmental protection and financial risk management. These analyses are an important step to minimize the impact of hazardous incidents and ensure the sustainability of businesses.

 

Consequence Analysis for Tanks Storing Flammable and Explosive Chemicals:

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Tanks where flammable and explosive chemicals are stored in industrial facilities carry serious risks. Effective management of these risks is vital for occupational health and safety. Here is the importance of safety analysis and precautions to be taken in such facilities:

 

1. Domino Effect Calculations

In tanks storing flammable and explosive chemicals, an explosion or fire in one tank can affect other tanks. The domino effect is an important analysis to determine how such events can spread to each other. This analysis includes:

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Positioning of Tanks: The proximity and location of tanks is critical for the domino effect. It should be determined which tanks could potentially be affected.

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Fire and Explosion Spread: It is important to simulate how explosive gases or fire would spread, how it could affect other tanks.

2. Thermal Radian Contours

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To assess the thermal effects of a potential fire in tanks, it is critical to calculate thermal radian contours. These contours show the temperature changes and heat dissipation that a fire can cause. This analysis includes:

 

Temperature Distribution: Determining how temperature will change in areas around tanks during a fire helps in planning safety measures.

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Heat Dissipation: It is important to understand the heat transfer that a fire can cause and how it can affect nearby tanks.

3. Shrapnel Effect of Explosion

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In the event of an explosion, shrapnel can pose a serious risk of damage to tanks and process equipment. The analysis of shrapnel effects from an explosion includes the following aspects:

 

Facility Design and Tank Material: The material and design of the tanks are important to limit the shrapnel effects of an explosion.

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Safety Valves and Shutdown Systems: Safety measures such as safety valves and automatic shutdown systems are necessary to prevent or contain an explosion.

4. Toxic Release and Workplace Layout:

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Leaks of flammable or toxic chemicals can pose serious threats to workplace layout. Therefore, an analysis of workplace layout and toxic gas dispersion is necessary. This analysis includes:

 

Tank and Equipment Positioning: Tanks and process equipment should be positioned considering the workplace layout.

Automation and Emergency Systems: Automation systems can automatically detect hazardous situations and initiate measures. Emergency systems are critical for rapid response.

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Safety Systems: Scrubbers and effective ventilation systems are required to control chemical leaks. It is also critical to establish physical barrier measures to prevent the release of toxic chemicals into the environment.

 

For tanks storing flammable and explosive chemicals, safety analysis is a critical step in terms of occupational health and safety. Domino effect, thermal radian contours, explosion shrapnel and toxic dispersion analysis are important to ensure the safety of the facility and the environment. These analyses guide the development of safety protocols, facility design and safety measures.

 

Consequence Analysis (Fire, Explosion and Toxic Release Modeling) Software:

 

Consequence Analysis (Fire, Explosion and Toxic Propagation Modeling) studies are studies that can only be done through software. As Özlem Academy, we use modeling software that can create 3D models.

 

Consequence analysis software uses complex mathematical and physical models to determine the potential consequences of hazardous events (e.g. explosion, fire, chemical leakage). By simulating various scenarios, this software predicts the effects of the event when it occurs. 

 

Working Principle of Results Analysis Software:

 

Data Entry: The first step is to enter the data required to perform the analysis. This data may include the characteristics of the industrial plant or enterprise, the characteristics of the chemicals, the geographical location of the facility and environmental factors.

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Defining Hazardous Event Scenarios: The software defines possible scenarios of hazardous events. For example, an explosion scenario might include a scenario where there is a leak of a specific chemical substance and a description of how the explosion starts.

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Use of Mathematical Models: The software simulates these scenarios using mathematical and physical models. These models calculate the physical effects of events such as explosions, fires and chemical leaks. These calculations can include factors such as pressure, temperature, rate of fire spread, distribution of the chemical, etc.

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Analysis of Results: The software generates potential consequences based on the simulation results. These results may include the size of the area affected by the explosion, temperature changes, pressure fluctuations and the rate of spread of the chemical leakage.

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Risk Assessment and Reporting: Consequence analysis software is used to evaluate these results and communicate potential risks to businesses. Typically, results are categorized according to risk levels and reports are generated.

 

Data Required for Consequence Analysis:

 

The data required for consequence analysis software is the basis for accurate modeling of the hazardous event to be analyzed. The data required for analysis are:

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Properties of Chemical Substances: Information such as physical and chemical properties of hazardous chemicals, reactivity, flammable properties is required.

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Facility and Equipment Information: Detailed information about the structure, equipment, storage areas and processes of the facility to be analyzed.

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Weather Conditions and Geographical Data: Weather conditions such as climate of the region, wind speed and direction, temperature and geographical location of the facility are important.

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Environment of the Facility: The plant's surroundings are important for assessing factors such as nearby buildings, settlements, water sources and natural protection areas.

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Safety Protocols and Emergency Plans: Existing safety protocols and emergency plans are used to evaluate the results of the analysis and determine appropriate measures.

 

Using this type of data, consequence analysis software helps to identify potential hazards, establish safety measures and improve occupational health and safety compliance. These analyses contribute to safer and more sustainable operation of industrial facilities.